Pinky_Narf

This is why I was trying to understand what is pushing key prices around. It's very odd to see them swing so much, but maybe that's normal for this time of year?

They've already rebounded to 27 from the 24 or so they were at. Crazy.

I understand the refined value thing, but I'm curious about what prompted the more recent (and sharp) shifts in price. The winter sale caused key prices to drop, but now they've returned to usual? It's just a bit odd that this wouldn't be a more gradual price shift, rather than a sudden one. To me this suggests that there are major players or bots are all connected, so when one event triggers one it triggers them all and prices shift rather radically.

Does anyone actually know what drives the price of keys? Is it the cash price in the community market, is there some large key holding bot group? It is just buyer/seller behaviour (ie. bots drop prices as people sell keys)? I'm curious about what caused the recent increase and sudden decrease in the cost. Typically that kind of a price drop is a knee-jerk response to something, but what? Unfortunately I'm not very familiar with the TF2 economy...

Key prices are currently falling quickly.

As has been said (elsewhere?) Valve likely doesn't care because they want people to purchase keys. Honestly, I don't think they really pay much attention - they likely keep an eye on profits, etc, and if it's going the right way, they don't bother. That said, if metal continues to be devalued there will be something else to use as currency. Not sure what...

There is no luck, only random chance and statistics.